Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Common Core Standards:

  • CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-IC.A.2 Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation.
  • CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-IC.B.3Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each.
  • CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A.1 Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Anticipatory Set:

For a warm-up, write the following question on the board, “I am rolling two dice.  What is the probability that I will roll a 12?  What about a 5?”

Direct Instruction:

1.  Review theoretical probability with students.  Give some examples, in addition to dice rolling. 

2.  Continue with examples, until students are comfortable with the procedure.

Guided Practice:

1.  Hand out experimental probability sheet and two dice, for each pair of students.

2.  Students will roll dice and record the experimental probability of each outcome.

Independent Practice:

1.  Hand out theoretical probability sheet.

2.  Students will calculate the theoretical probability of each outcome.

Conclusion:

1.  Ask students if their experimental probability was the same as their theoretical probability.

2.  Brainstorm, together, reasons for the difference.

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